One of the core demands of the United States in promoting trade cooperation between the US and India is to build a technology and industrial alliance that excludes China. This brings three direct pressures to China: labor-intensive products from India may squeeze out China's share of exports to the US; The cooperation among the United States, Japan, South Korea and India in the fields of semiconductors and critical minerals may tighten the technological blockade against China. The competition for global resource pricing power has intensified.
However, behind the challenges, there are also opportunities. On the one hand, external pressure will force Chinese enterprises to accelerate technological research and development and industrial upgrading, and increase the added value of products. On the other hand, China can further expand the markets along the Belt and Road Initiative, reduce its reliance on a single market, and at the same time enhance economic resilience by relying on the domestic demand market. It is worth noting that the tightening of China's rare earth exports has led to a 22% increase in the cost of new energy vehicle batteries in India, demonstrating China's irreplaceability in the global supply chain.
Although the current US-India agreement has made substantive progress, there are still uncertainties: India has clearly stated that it will not sign a "hasty agreement" under pressure, the specific extent and timetable for the reduction of Russian oil imports have not yet been determined, and the US demand for India to open its retail market may trigger controversy in its domestic society. The market expects that the two sides may complete the final negotiations and officially announce the agreement at the ASEAN Summit.
For enterprises, it is necessary to focus on three major directions: First, labor-intensive industries such as textiles and electronics, which need to be vigilant about the competitive pressure brought by the growth of India's exports to the United States; Second, agricultural product and energy traders can seize the market opportunity of the expansion of US exports to India. Thirdly, high-end manufacturing and technology enterprises should accelerate the autonomy of core technologies and reduce their reliance on a single supply chain.
The deep nesting of the global industrial chain determines that "de-Sinicization" cannot be achieved overnight. The advancement of the US-India trade agreement is more like a microcosm of the adjustment of the global landscape - although political games can change the flow of trade, market laws will ultimately dominate the final configuration of the supply chain. Only by continuously strengthening its advantages in the entire industrial chain and technological innovation capabilities can China take the initiative in this global trade restructuring.
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