Last week, US cotton rebounded somewhat, and the demand for US cotton may be relatively weak. As of the week ending October 10, 2025, the cumulative inspection volume of upland cotton and Pima cotton in the United States was 269,100 tons, accounting for 8.6% of the estimated annual US cotton production, which was 27% slower than the same period last year. Brazil's output in 2025 has slightly increased, and a bumper harvest has basically been achieved. The estimated output for the New Year is also at a high level.
Last week, it was mentioned that the harvest progress of seed cotton in Xinjiang was faster than that of last year, and the purchase price rose slightly, providing some support for the futures price. As expected, Zhengzhou cotton rebounded. On October 20th, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton 2601 rose by 0.97% to close at 13,465 yuan per ton.
Xinjiang in China is still in the purchasing period. The price of seed cotton is generally stable, and the cost of new cotton is around 14,000. Although futures prices have risen recently, the news of accelerated supply indicates that the cotton market will be well-supplied in the future, which may dampen the upward momentum of futures prices and put pressure on them.
In September 2025, the Cotton Farmers Branch of the China Cotton Association conducted a survey on the cotton yield and the progress of picking and selling among 1,908 designated farmers across the country. The survey shows that the national cotton planting area will be 44.823 million mu in 2025, an increase of 1.8% year-on-year. The total output is expected to be 727.8 tons, representing a year-on-year increase of 9.2% and an increase of 62,000 tons compared with the previous period. The purchase price of seed cotton in Xinjiang is stable and firm, mainly concentrated in the range of 6 to 6.3 yuan per kilogram, which is equivalent to the cost of new cotton at around 14,000 yuan per ton, and the price range is gradually narrowing. The new cotton harvest is abundant, and the pressure of hedging is extremely high. However, the old inventory is at an extremely low level in history, providing some support for cotton prices.
According to feedback from several cotton mills in Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shandong, Henan and other places, due to the volatile rebound of Zhengzhou cotton futures and Zhengzhou cotton yarn futures in the past week or so, coupled with the fact that the production capacity of domestic cotton mills has remained in a contracted state since October and the short-term profits of most cotton mills have rebounded, the ex-factory price of cotton yarn and the quotations of various light textile markets have remained stable since mid-October. Some cotton mills with relatively low inventory rates of cotton yarn and raw material inventories such as cotton maintained for less than a month have the intention to raise prices by 100 to 200 yuan per ton. However, it is generally difficult for cotton mills to implement the price increase of cotton yarn, but it may stimulate and pressure customers to place orders as soon as possible.
According to the survey, at present, the new orders for 50S and above high-count pure cotton carded/combed yarns in the cotton yarn market are still relatively few, and the shipment of cotton mills is slow. The sales of high-end cotton yarns from C32 to C40S were slightly better. The production and sales situation of gas-spun 21-32S yarns in Xinjiang and the inland areas has continued to improve. In particular, the inventory of OE32S yarns in various light textile cities in the inland areas remains at a relatively low level.
Most cotton textile enterprises predict that in the second half of 2025, the demand for cotton textiles and clothing in the market will show a pattern of "no strong peak season and no weak off-season". After October, the operating rates of terminals such as cotton mills, weaving factories, dyeing factories and clothing are likely to remain at the current level of fluctuation, unless the main contract of Zhengzhou Cotton breaks through strong resistance levels such as 13,000 and 12,500. Otherwise, the hope of another price drop for cotton yarn at the factory is slim, and the atmosphere of "price resistance" among cotton mills both inside and outside Xinjiang is quite strong.
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